excellent convo, only point id want to make would be regarding Indonesia, even if they're on an incline demographically, internally its so hilariously divided that It isnt able to put out anywhere near the same influence as the Chinese Great Han bulk can. Ethnically religiously linguistically and geographically the place is a kaleidoscope, so exploding/younger populations are going to either inflame those tensions, or beef up its importance as a manufacturer, but i doubt its going to start making waves geopolitically as a force. its position right along the neck of the busiest trade lanes in the world make it less interested in causing trouble not more, so it walks this line of being softly US aligned and mostly neutral. Granted this is all IIRC, so I could be wildly off base, but imagining them as a rival up and coming was a very interesting take I had to ponder for a min while listening.
I think that for the time being Indonesia is a lesser power... but when everyone around it is going through catastrophic demographic collapse, Indonesia may seize the initiative. We'll see how things go over the next 20 years or so.
Feels very coin-tossy, not familiar enough with the trends going on in the Asean bloc to say how power relations may shift there, or if the weight of that whole region will be on the rise as more advanced nations stumble demographically. Could be a bloc dominated by Indonesia just like Java dominates Indonesia internally, or could be a bulkier region for cheap labor as China ages. Im going with the safe option and "predicting instability in the region" something something Muslim terror groups. Situation monitoring at an all time high.
It's not just the cheap labor and population. There's a pretty significant amount of mining that takes place in Indonesia. They have all the makings of a great power... but they haven't got a culture that supports it. If all their neighbors start collapsing, it'll be a last-man-standing situation. All they need to do is assert a claim to global dominance and they'll be able to maintain it.
I think that they tend to keep quiet as they're squished between the Indian, Chinese, Australian, and American sphere's of influence right now.
Im reminded somewhat of Argentina, massive potential but can never quite achieve it. Like you said time will tell if Indonesia can internally weather the demographic storm, but im certainly quite curious now. Would be interesting if pop growth data should any fluctuation in the sizes of relative demographics to each other, or if things are roughly constant but upward.
excellent convo, only point id want to make would be regarding Indonesia, even if they're on an incline demographically, internally its so hilariously divided that It isnt able to put out anywhere near the same influence as the Chinese Great Han bulk can. Ethnically religiously linguistically and geographically the place is a kaleidoscope, so exploding/younger populations are going to either inflame those tensions, or beef up its importance as a manufacturer, but i doubt its going to start making waves geopolitically as a force. its position right along the neck of the busiest trade lanes in the world make it less interested in causing trouble not more, so it walks this line of being softly US aligned and mostly neutral. Granted this is all IIRC, so I could be wildly off base, but imagining them as a rival up and coming was a very interesting take I had to ponder for a min while listening.
I think that for the time being Indonesia is a lesser power... but when everyone around it is going through catastrophic demographic collapse, Indonesia may seize the initiative. We'll see how things go over the next 20 years or so.
Honestly fair enough.
We'll find out. If we're lucky, you're right. If we're not lucky, we have a dark-horse global power emerging that no one sees coming.
Feels very coin-tossy, not familiar enough with the trends going on in the Asean bloc to say how power relations may shift there, or if the weight of that whole region will be on the rise as more advanced nations stumble demographically. Could be a bloc dominated by Indonesia just like Java dominates Indonesia internally, or could be a bulkier region for cheap labor as China ages. Im going with the safe option and "predicting instability in the region" something something Muslim terror groups. Situation monitoring at an all time high.
It's not just the cheap labor and population. There's a pretty significant amount of mining that takes place in Indonesia. They have all the makings of a great power... but they haven't got a culture that supports it. If all their neighbors start collapsing, it'll be a last-man-standing situation. All they need to do is assert a claim to global dominance and they'll be able to maintain it.
I think that they tend to keep quiet as they're squished between the Indian, Chinese, Australian, and American sphere's of influence right now.
Im reminded somewhat of Argentina, massive potential but can never quite achieve it. Like you said time will tell if Indonesia can internally weather the demographic storm, but im certainly quite curious now. Would be interesting if pop growth data should any fluctuation in the sizes of relative demographics to each other, or if things are roughly constant but upward.