[Book Review] The Ecotechnic Future

An academic discussion of an ecological post-industrial world

The Ecotechnic Future is a book that pairs well with Breaking Together. Breaking Together is an apocalyptic view emphasizing the failures of our current civilization and the panic of our elites, The Ecotechnic Future observes a positive long-term and Darwinian vision of civilization.

The author, John Greer, is a skilled writer. He explores the long term impacts that energy limits will on human civilization. Industrial civilization is described by Greer as “the first technic society” with more to follow; each taking up root in the failures of the previous. While Greer acknowledges that turmoil will occur as we transition away from our industrially wasteful society, it does not represent the end of humanity.

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Greer observes that human societies behave like small ecosystems. The influx of energy in the form of petroleum triggered a series of cascading socio-ecological effects: the first technic society. The first technic society is characterized by wasteful and indulgent energy expenditure and the development of highly complex industrial systems. The conclusion of that form of human society now appears somewhat inevitable triggering panic among modern elites. Rather than catastrophic collapse, a series of societal successions are envisioned, each taking centuries.

Greer demonstrates how ecologies do not spring fully formed from dead ground. Over the course of many generations, an ecology will develop from simple weeds to brushland to young forests and eventually old growth forests. The process takes a long time, and each successive ecology can only develop after the previous ecology has prepared the way.

In that sense, after our industrial societies (and their consequences) have run their course, another society will take root in the ground prepared by the old.

Greer envisions a scarcity-industrial society following global industrial civilization. Already we’re seeing growing pains and turmoil here. The elites are terrified of living in a world where they can’t fly on private jets to [Epstein islands] whenever they’re bored. Hence panic. Once the turmoil of the current age concludes, we will find ourselves at the dawn of scarcity-industrialism. Neoliberalism will collapse because it’s an ideology that requires unlimited resources, and a replacement ideology (likely utilizing some form of imperial nationalism) will have to replace it. Scarcity industrialism will be defined by limits to exploitable resources… factories will have to pay high market rates to continue operation at maximum capacity and many factories will close. Nations will have to compete for raw resources and utilize aging military equipment as the capacity to build becomes limited.

After scarcity industrialism, Greer imagines a salvage society. After the salvage society will come further forms of technic civilizations. Each technic society will follow the previous and function differently with different resource availability. The process will take hundreds of years, eventually reaching a final “climax” state which is stable for incredibly long periods (thousands or tens of thousands of years).

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In general terms, ecologies go through multiple phases. After wood is clear-cut, a new old-growth forest does not immediately reemerge. First weeds must retake the dirt, then scrublands and brush. Then quickly growing trees create an environment suitable for slow-growing trees to develop. The eventual “final state” is the climax ecology which will remain stable until disturbed.

Eventually, Greer anticipates the development of a human climax society… one that really is fully sustainable. What form that takes we, at this time, have no idea. The humility of Greer here is respectable. The ultimate form of human society will look very different from what is observed now.

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In addition to preliminary analyses regarding energy limits, development limits, and reasonable discussions of the direction in which medium and long-term human civilization is likely to manifest, Greer provides advice that’s applicable to the hear and now. Advice for the transition to scarcity-industrialism. Simple advice (nearly all of it requiring owning land) is provided and recommendations are given for easing the ones family into the next epoch of human civilization.

The next civilization will look different, and many things we take for granted now will have to change. The difficulty of transitioning from urban sprawl back into structured cottage industry is going to be trickier in some ways and easy in others; 3d printers, high efficiency generators and AI will be valuable tools, but bureaucratic red tape will make the transition unfeasibly difficult in many areas. City designs throughout the United States do not lend themselves to small home businesses.

The Ecotechnic Future is probably the most valuable forward-reaching book that I’ve read so far. Breaking Together was okay, but disappointing by comparison. While Greer acknowledges that the global population is likely to halve due to energy constraints (something we’re seeing now in demographic collapse) that is not the focus of the text. Rather, it’s an enlightened review of how humanity can adapt, and must adapt, to the changing ecological constraints of our environment.

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