Thanks for this analysis, it was a very interesting read!
I think the hard limits on energy will soon hit us really hard. In my opinion, there is no substitute for diesel, which is the lifeblood of modern societies. Electrification will not be able to replace that. So I see a significant contraction in industrial output in the foreseeable future - at least in those countries that no longer have access to cheap energy. Hallo Deutschland.
That's probably correct, but in the Industrialized world it'll take the form of price-fluctuations more than direct collapse. Germany is going to see more extreme results due to energy dependency.
I don't really take any Malthusian cult seriously, except for AI. I'm a part of that cult, I suppose. I'm extremely bullish on it, but I really really hope it takes another decade or two.
We're going to run into SOME type of hard-limit, but if you read through the article, I agree with you. The BaU model in the Limits to Growth is not the one we're on. More a stagnation and less sudden collapse. Restack the article, more people need to let go of their apocalypse-scenarios.
Thanks for this analysis, it was a very interesting read!
I think the hard limits on energy will soon hit us really hard. In my opinion, there is no substitute for diesel, which is the lifeblood of modern societies. Electrification will not be able to replace that. So I see a significant contraction in industrial output in the foreseeable future - at least in those countries that no longer have access to cheap energy. Hallo Deutschland.
That's probably correct, but in the Industrialized world it'll take the form of price-fluctuations more than direct collapse. Germany is going to see more extreme results due to energy dependency.
I don't really take any Malthusian cult seriously, except for AI. I'm a part of that cult, I suppose. I'm extremely bullish on it, but I really really hope it takes another decade or two.
We're going to run into SOME type of hard-limit, but if you read through the article, I agree with you. The BaU model in the Limits to Growth is not the one we're on. More a stagnation and less sudden collapse. Restack the article, more people need to let go of their apocalypse-scenarios.
I made sure I didn't like it before I read the whole thing, because I have virtue. Aristotle talks about this.
It just popped up in my feed at the exact time you posted it.