Love the take, too many people seem to think we can escape the Spenglerian fate of the West or that we somehow havent already peaked
My question is can the process of pseudeomorphosis (ie creation of a new culture from the ashes of one) be done deliberately/on a short time scale? Or is it something that will happen long after we are all dead by happenstance?
Read both, heres what I thought on each. Both very well written and researched. Still working through the whole Holistic Civilization Series. Going to read the linked article about the idea of an Anean Civilization as well since this definitely tries to answer this question.
Heard you talk about the blueprint article on Black Ibis (I think thats the name of the podcast) and read it following it. I think it offers practical and possible advice on escaping the malaise of our (intentionally) disconnected world. In a lot of ways, it seems to be reinventing feudalism. This probably sounds bad on the surface, but, to me, it makes sense to revert to a social structure we know worked when our current one seems set for complete civilizational suicide. I don't know if these communities are the long term (100s of years) answer but they seem to be a good fix in the medium term (50ish years). I sort of view this solution as a reset button to start rebuilding the aristocracy while we figure something else out or a real Ceasar seizes the reigns and directly guides civilization. Right now, Trump is much more Sulla (despite pundits wanting to declare the Rubicon has been crossed) and we are still awaiting the actual decisive crisis that will alter our course.
While impossible to predict what the next civilization will be, I think you start at the right place with identifying the underlying values. This fits with Spengler's physiognomic approach of looking outside then in. I agree that for a new civilization to form there has to be an answer provided to the spiritual decay we are experiencing. The holistic civilization certainly answers this. My immediate two concerns would be; Is this civilization's rise inevitable (ie Egypt remained a dead civilization for millenia after the Pharoah's and no pseudomorphosis occurred) and will the United States really grow weak enough to allow this? For the former, the articles seem to suggest to me that the answer is yes or at the very least an attempt will be made. To the latter question, I think all the underlying factors would point to yes but the only thing that would make me hesitant to agree would be the ownership and widespread deployment (as in silos as and bases) of nuclear weapons. I can't pretend to know how it would play out but it still seems like the ultimate trump card the centralized state can use to sabre rattle that no regional power could ever counter.
Some other less organized thoughts I had:
-Concur that China cannot produce the next civilization due to ecological factors (and I would argue spiritual ones); I have a theory I will write on at some point that Japan (and very much not China or Korea) has actually begun the creation of a new culture from the Sinnic and Faustian one's starting with the Meiji Restoration but thats a topic for another day
-In the event Marius takes power back from Sulla (read Democrats seize back executive control), I think it is likely they would attack the independent enclaves through lawfare and in the long term warfare. Depends how well they fly under the radar and how widespread this adoption is. I think the litmus test will be the fate of Orania in South Africa since it is a similar idea on steroids with a far more hostile political situation.
-I like the location ideas. I think the Mississippi River is the natural point of world dominance in the next 500 years. The other locations seem like good contenders for regional powers that could expand (with Southeast Asia being the only one I disagree with, Singapore is capable of great things but much of the rest of Southeast Asia does not have the spiritual wherewithal for greatness IMO)
Appreciate you linking the articles, definitely gets at the idea of pseudomorphosis and definitely suggests that there will be an attempt to deliberately create something new. You also directly answered the timescale question (80-200 years).
I think that you're right in that identifying solutions outside the 200 year time-horizon is going to be very difficult. Social and technological norms and changes are going to make forward-thinking that far out very difficult.
Personally, I don't see Trump as a Sulla character. I imagine him to be a Gracchi... right down to the attempted assassination on his 2nd go 'round. The American public would still put up with a brazenly hostile government for around 2 generations before something snapped... that would be Ceasar. With Trump as a successful (rather than dead) Gracchi, that alters the way the United States is going to transition to Empire. It'll probably take a bit longer and be somewhat less violent and more orderly than it was for Rome.
In terms of a new civilization, I think that the United States is culturally and legally weak enough RIGHT NOW for the formation of extra-legal pseudo-states within the US. They'd mostly be built around state infrastructure and county boundaries. There is not, however, sufficient cultural unity or tension to generate those pseudo-states. The United States federal government is stretched thin trying to keep even marginally obstinante states in line as places like Texas and California make a mockery of federal laws on the regular by going after specific issues. I suspect that, over time, disunity will grow while the federal government concentrates executive power to deal with it. State governors will eventually become very similar to Kings beneath an imperial "United States." Over time it'll become an empire-in-name-only type of organism with the states doing their own thing.
At that point, you have sufficient momentum for the creation of a new civilization... probably after some unplanned event that places the larger empire into crisis. Even then it'll be a whole region of alliances that forms rather than a formalized succession. I don't know how atomic or biological weapons will play out, but with CRISPR technology it'll probably be possible within 30 to 50 years for random bio-labs to create world-ending diseases. If that's the case then every backyard biologist can be a state-threat level actor. something as simple as mirror-life bacteria could be a world-ending threat... which will lead to entirely new forms of cultural standards for engagement. A "New Bushido" as described in Hyprion Cantos or some variant thereof.
Deeply appreciate this post, one of the best I’ve seen on Substack . Affected me in a genuinely positive way.
Im not a PC guy, not at all ashamed of being white, I have no guilt for what my ancestors may or may not have done. That being said, I struggled to see meaning in white nationalism or any modern ethnonationalism in the USA. It’s not offensive to me, just lackluster. I’ve been looking for a piece that would effectively lay out arguments for civic nationalism vs ethnonationalism. This piece might have resolved that need entirely.
Hey, I'm happy I could help. It's a lot to look forward in time multi-generationally. In many ways, that's where we're at. The "now" is a huge mess, but it's a great time to organize in the interests of future generations rather than ourselves.
"If it is the will of God that western Faustian Civilization should go on forever, then it would be the first time that God has willed such a thing in human history. It is in the nature of every civilization to believe that it shall last until the end of time, and it is in the nature of every civilization to fail. As they grow decrepit they grow more schizophrenic, less coherent and eventually collapse in on themselves with such thunder that the echoes resound for centuries."
This is one of your best articles Copernican. (Certainly probably my favorite,) You've written something really compelling, both in meaning and in how you presented it. I envy your verbal intelligence. The only reason I can possibly think this post didn't get bigger was something like the title or something.
I myself put off reading this because I imagined it would be a "here's why castizo futurism is based" shtick. I was ready the entire time to cite your words and critique them, and I couldn't tell you why I made such a strong guess of what this post was about.
Your thoughts reminded me of a popular concept in right wing social media several years ago.
There's a type of person who thrives in middle management and are the main enforcers of this 'regime', the small-soulled bugman. Epitomized by someone like the host of Hot Ones — not particularly cool nor uncool, a blank slate who easily flatters the other in conversation, and always up to date on the latest trends. The bugman concept has been overtaken by the NPC meme, but I don't think these foot soldiers of the managerial class are NPCs, per se.
The foot soldiers being described as 'bugmen' is probably acceptable. The NPCs are those who remain within the bureaucracy when some one is forced to conform.
Yes, I was sort of throwing out some scattered brained reactions to your essay. Both memes are valid, I just lament that everyone forgot about the bugman. Have you read any of Weber's critiques of bureaucracy?
I suspect that the next civilization will develop in a way that is a reaction to the trauma of international managerialism and the dehumanization of materialist religions. We have the opportunity now to radically shape what form that might take.
Love the take, too many people seem to think we can escape the Spenglerian fate of the West or that we somehow havent already peaked
My question is can the process of pseudeomorphosis (ie creation of a new culture from the ashes of one) be done deliberately/on a short time scale? Or is it something that will happen long after we are all dead by happenstance?
I have two articles related to that subject:
https://alwaysthehorizon.substack.com/p/a-blueprint-for-independent-enclave?r=43z8s4
and
https://alwaysthehorizon.substack.com/p/origins-of-the-next-great-civilization?r=43z8s4
let me know what you think.
Read both, heres what I thought on each. Both very well written and researched. Still working through the whole Holistic Civilization Series. Going to read the linked article about the idea of an Anean Civilization as well since this definitely tries to answer this question.
Heard you talk about the blueprint article on Black Ibis (I think thats the name of the podcast) and read it following it. I think it offers practical and possible advice on escaping the malaise of our (intentionally) disconnected world. In a lot of ways, it seems to be reinventing feudalism. This probably sounds bad on the surface, but, to me, it makes sense to revert to a social structure we know worked when our current one seems set for complete civilizational suicide. I don't know if these communities are the long term (100s of years) answer but they seem to be a good fix in the medium term (50ish years). I sort of view this solution as a reset button to start rebuilding the aristocracy while we figure something else out or a real Ceasar seizes the reigns and directly guides civilization. Right now, Trump is much more Sulla (despite pundits wanting to declare the Rubicon has been crossed) and we are still awaiting the actual decisive crisis that will alter our course.
While impossible to predict what the next civilization will be, I think you start at the right place with identifying the underlying values. This fits with Spengler's physiognomic approach of looking outside then in. I agree that for a new civilization to form there has to be an answer provided to the spiritual decay we are experiencing. The holistic civilization certainly answers this. My immediate two concerns would be; Is this civilization's rise inevitable (ie Egypt remained a dead civilization for millenia after the Pharoah's and no pseudomorphosis occurred) and will the United States really grow weak enough to allow this? For the former, the articles seem to suggest to me that the answer is yes or at the very least an attempt will be made. To the latter question, I think all the underlying factors would point to yes but the only thing that would make me hesitant to agree would be the ownership and widespread deployment (as in silos as and bases) of nuclear weapons. I can't pretend to know how it would play out but it still seems like the ultimate trump card the centralized state can use to sabre rattle that no regional power could ever counter.
Some other less organized thoughts I had:
-Concur that China cannot produce the next civilization due to ecological factors (and I would argue spiritual ones); I have a theory I will write on at some point that Japan (and very much not China or Korea) has actually begun the creation of a new culture from the Sinnic and Faustian one's starting with the Meiji Restoration but thats a topic for another day
-In the event Marius takes power back from Sulla (read Democrats seize back executive control), I think it is likely they would attack the independent enclaves through lawfare and in the long term warfare. Depends how well they fly under the radar and how widespread this adoption is. I think the litmus test will be the fate of Orania in South Africa since it is a similar idea on steroids with a far more hostile political situation.
-I like the location ideas. I think the Mississippi River is the natural point of world dominance in the next 500 years. The other locations seem like good contenders for regional powers that could expand (with Southeast Asia being the only one I disagree with, Singapore is capable of great things but much of the rest of Southeast Asia does not have the spiritual wherewithal for greatness IMO)
Appreciate you linking the articles, definitely gets at the idea of pseudomorphosis and definitely suggests that there will be an attempt to deliberately create something new. You also directly answered the timescale question (80-200 years).
I think that you're right in that identifying solutions outside the 200 year time-horizon is going to be very difficult. Social and technological norms and changes are going to make forward-thinking that far out very difficult.
Personally, I don't see Trump as a Sulla character. I imagine him to be a Gracchi... right down to the attempted assassination on his 2nd go 'round. The American public would still put up with a brazenly hostile government for around 2 generations before something snapped... that would be Ceasar. With Trump as a successful (rather than dead) Gracchi, that alters the way the United States is going to transition to Empire. It'll probably take a bit longer and be somewhat less violent and more orderly than it was for Rome.
In terms of a new civilization, I think that the United States is culturally and legally weak enough RIGHT NOW for the formation of extra-legal pseudo-states within the US. They'd mostly be built around state infrastructure and county boundaries. There is not, however, sufficient cultural unity or tension to generate those pseudo-states. The United States federal government is stretched thin trying to keep even marginally obstinante states in line as places like Texas and California make a mockery of federal laws on the regular by going after specific issues. I suspect that, over time, disunity will grow while the federal government concentrates executive power to deal with it. State governors will eventually become very similar to Kings beneath an imperial "United States." Over time it'll become an empire-in-name-only type of organism with the states doing their own thing.
At that point, you have sufficient momentum for the creation of a new civilization... probably after some unplanned event that places the larger empire into crisis. Even then it'll be a whole region of alliances that forms rather than a formalized succession. I don't know how atomic or biological weapons will play out, but with CRISPR technology it'll probably be possible within 30 to 50 years for random bio-labs to create world-ending diseases. If that's the case then every backyard biologist can be a state-threat level actor. something as simple as mirror-life bacteria could be a world-ending threat... which will lead to entirely new forms of cultural standards for engagement. A "New Bushido" as described in Hyprion Cantos or some variant thereof.
Deeply appreciate this post, one of the best I’ve seen on Substack . Affected me in a genuinely positive way.
Im not a PC guy, not at all ashamed of being white, I have no guilt for what my ancestors may or may not have done. That being said, I struggled to see meaning in white nationalism or any modern ethnonationalism in the USA. It’s not offensive to me, just lackluster. I’ve been looking for a piece that would effectively lay out arguments for civic nationalism vs ethnonationalism. This piece might have resolved that need entirely.
Hey, I'm happy I could help. It's a lot to look forward in time multi-generationally. In many ways, that's where we're at. The "now" is a huge mess, but it's a great time to organize in the interests of future generations rather than ourselves.
"If it is the will of God that western Faustian Civilization should go on forever, then it would be the first time that God has willed such a thing in human history. It is in the nature of every civilization to believe that it shall last until the end of time, and it is in the nature of every civilization to fail. As they grow decrepit they grow more schizophrenic, less coherent and eventually collapse in on themselves with such thunder that the echoes resound for centuries."
This is one of your best articles Copernican. (Certainly probably my favorite,) You've written something really compelling, both in meaning and in how you presented it. I envy your verbal intelligence. The only reason I can possibly think this post didn't get bigger was something like the title or something.
I myself put off reading this because I imagined it would be a "here's why castizo futurism is based" shtick. I was ready the entire time to cite your words and critique them, and I couldn't tell you why I made such a strong guess of what this post was about.
Anyways, great post, good job here.
Your thoughts reminded me of a popular concept in right wing social media several years ago.
There's a type of person who thrives in middle management and are the main enforcers of this 'regime', the small-soulled bugman. Epitomized by someone like the host of Hot Ones — not particularly cool nor uncool, a blank slate who easily flatters the other in conversation, and always up to date on the latest trends. The bugman concept has been overtaken by the NPC meme, but I don't think these foot soldiers of the managerial class are NPCs, per se.
The foot soldiers being described as 'bugmen' is probably acceptable. The NPCs are those who remain within the bureaucracy when some one is forced to conform.
Yes, I was sort of throwing out some scattered brained reactions to your essay. Both memes are valid, I just lament that everyone forgot about the bugman. Have you read any of Weber's critiques of bureaucracy?
I read a really good one the other day discussing the achilleas heel of cowardly bureaucrats running our system. Trying to remember who wrote it.
I suspect that the next civilization will develop in a way that is a reaction to the trauma of international managerialism and the dehumanization of materialist religions. We have the opportunity now to radically shape what form that might take.
Form follows function.