Reformation: A Long-Term View of the Approaching American Era

A long-term look helps reveals intricacies in current-day politics

The Political Climate as Future-History

What a couple of months it’s been since January 20th, 2024. I’ve been intentionally dragging my feet through March and most of February when discussing the shifting face of American politics. The absolute blitz performed by DOGE and the Trump Team has been a sight to behold, but discussing in detail the long-term effects has been nearly impossible as each new day brought some surprise, revelation, or hilarious left-wing temper tantrum.

After weeks of watching and waiting, the dust, while still not settled, is at least no longer thrown into the air with quite the same frenetic enthusiasm. Many people do not consider at the mid-term or long-term picture of politics-to-come in the United States. Consider: by looking at the mid-term effects, it is possible to glean a lot more information about the present than by looking at the latest revelation or furor. The cultural/political realignment of American politics, especially in opposition to European politics, is directional. That is, it is oriented towards eventual outcomes based on larger long-term sociological trends.

Understanding broad directionality helps in identifying current political effects. As I anticipated an attack on birthright citizenship a week before Trump announced such, I am also anticipating that political parties will trend toward specific identities and platforms over the next decade or so.

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Mid-Term Assumptions

The following is a list of active trends likely to continue over the next decade. Of course, a black-swan event may radically reshape any of these. That said, the following trends paint in broad strokes how the geopolitical landscape is shifting. I’ll return to this post in a year (or maybe two) once the dust has properly settled to see how accurate the analysis was.

The Democrat Political Party will Refuse to Reform

This one seems the most obvious right now. For anyone who wishes to observe the absolute dregs of humanity stubbornly refusing to admit cultural defeat, there are numerous subreddits and lonely feminists on Substack to go see. “We didn’t make any mistakes, the voters are wrong and also nazis,” is a common sentiment. The attacks on Tesla are one of many examples of hyper-ideological short-term thinking.

Back in the 1970s and 1960s, during the birth of progressivism, very capable thought leaders and cultural architects floated to the surface. Like most cultural paradigms, however, once it became popular, less and less competent hangers-on began dragging it down. The original leaders (20 years old in the late 60s) are now in their late 70s. Many are dead. The first generation of hangers-on are in their 50s and 60s. You will frequently see them hobbling around left-wing protests with walkers and haggard, leathery faces. The original face of progressivism, which lifted the cultural movement to prominence, is now old and out of touch.

Boomers.

Fortunately for us, progressives are inherent narcissists. So every subsequent generation has been less competent than the last: If you want to be the smartest person in the room, you don’t bring on board the hyper-competent, you bring on only subservients at most a little less capable than yourself. This has been going on for several generations, which is why the elder democratic leadership in Congress looks like half-decayed corpses, and the younger members of the party are horrifically incompetent.

Younger progressives, democrats, and liberals have taken on the mantle of what was once a reasonable (if misguided) quest for egalitarianism and turned it into a demand for a managerialist totalitarianism. An entire political movement to ensure equity between the intelligent and vital (mostly White) Men of the West and the incompetent and decadent. In reality, their ideology now boils down to simplified tenants: “Hate White people,” “Hate men,” “Hate the competent,” “Hate the beautiful,” and “Hate the moral.” Hate. Hate. Hate. These chosen enemies are to be mixed-and-matched by their thought leaders for whatever the cause-of-the-day is; be it destroying an electric car company (2025) or demanding everyone buy electric vehicles at their own expense (2023) to “save the environment.”

The democratic party proved unable to prevent a takeover by progressive extremists. As such, they are not capable of self-reflection or improvement. They cannot take on a new party platform unless so ordained by the dogma of the current day. That dogma is also so subject to change that they can’t even maintain a consistent political platform, much less build a new one. Their current political platform is best described with the following principles: envy, wrath, vanity, treachery, lust, gluttony, and sloth.

An inability to change and the incompetence of their current leadership will place the democratic party in a position that weakens over time in most of the country as their tent of supporters thins and ages. A few die-hard blue states will retain democratic leadership at the expense of their population, but as we’re seeing in California, that population will quickly shrink by emigration. Especially the emigration of competent and productive.

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A Global Economic Slowdown is Underway

This particular can has been kicked down the road since the market collapse in the year 2000. Most nations are inflating their currencies to simulate economic growth at their own long-term expense. The result is ballooning stock valuations while Main Street's productivity declines. I discussed this in greater detail in my reviews of “The Limits to Growth” and “Breaking Together.”

In essence, the current global model for economic growth is Keynesian. It requires infinite growth to remain stable. That’s not merely that it must continue growing, but it must continue growing faster every year, forever. An impossible feat in a world of scarce energy and resources.

Our elites, however, have all of their wealth bound into the infinite-growth system. We’ve already reached several rate limits. We haven’t run out of resources, but the rate at which we can pull minerals out of the ground can only accelerate so far and so fast. We can’t pull minerals out of the ground fast enough to maintain the Keynesian infinite-accelerating-growth-forever model. Unfortunately, rather than adapting to a stabilized economic system, our elites would prefer to stimulate growth through inflation and money printing.

This type of behavior has been seen among the elites of numerous civilizations throughout human history.

The global economic slowdown creates a zero-sum game when it comes to global trade. There are two ways this can be managed. It can either be controlled via “managed decline” or through national imperialism. Most of the world is orienting itself toward managed decline, especially Western nations like the UK and Canada. The United States was oriented toward managed decline, but this last election appears to have altered that course.

As an Imperial power, the United States will seek to grow its economy at the expense of foreign economies by drawing their raw resources. Effectively, the US will set up extraction-economies in provencial tributary states like Canada and Mexico. To do this well, the US will need to draw mineral and material resources from weaker nations for domestic production, a mercantile economy at the expense of the global economy. A de-complexification of the Global Economic Order. The pain of that transition will likely last 10 years or so but will dramatically alter the global landscape. The world again will become a game of Great Powers vying with one another for critical raw mineral and energy resources. The US, Russia, and India and maybe the EU are likely to come out the other side of this global restructuring somewhat handily. China is likely to be left behind due to demographic decline and a heavy reliance on the US as a consumer market rather than a partnered production market.

Either way, the global economy will have to transition to a very different form of economic governance. The restructuring of national economies will depend heavily on the next two years of the current US administration, but eventual success in restructuring at least the domestic economy is likely. Returning production to the United States (even if it’s mostly high-tech automated production) will be heroically popular with the electorate. Especially the younger electorate who do not have 401k’s to lose, and who desperately need gainful employment.

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There is a Growing New Right Culture

Culturally, the Right is ascendant in ways not seen since the beginning of modern Americana after the Great War in 1914. For a century, progressivism and openness have dominated politics in the United States. Equal Rights became Free Trade became Open Borders with astonishing speed. The results have been a degree of cultural decline so swift that it’s unparalleled in history. In response, a lot of the “old useless traditions” abandoned by the boomers in their Righteous Crusades back in the 60s are getting reevaluated… and being found to not be useless.

The New Right began in places like 4chan back in 2010 or so with events like Occupy Wall Street. The (effective) leadership of the Occupy movement was forced to reevaluate their political positions on progressivism after they were summarily thrown out of the progressive stack for the crime of being white men. The result was that the most vital, intelligent, and capable individuals at Occupy left in disgust.

Those leaders then compared notes on the free-expression parts of the internet like 4chan, 8chan, Reddit (which didn’t turn to hot garbage until the purges in 2015), and other smaller websites. A result was the throwing-away of the presuppositions of liberalism and the reevaluation in totality of progressivism as an ideological concept.

Here we stand 10 years since the purges of right-wing thought began on Reddit and various other websites. The New Right (formerly the Dissident Right) has become a cultural powerhouse. The best philosophers are rando’s on Substack. The most well-liked commentators are random live-streamers on Twitch and YouTube. The most culturally influential podcasts are “right-wing extremists” like Joe Rogan. The New Right has become a cultural force sufficient to overrule the Karen-ocracy and its midwit foot soldiers.

The progressive Left is on the cultural decline for the first time in a century, and they’re terrified. Their ideology has devolved to a glorified attempt to roleplay as if it were the 1960s again and complain about ghost-nazis hidden in every Republican courthouse. Leftist lies held precedence when they also held the reigns of social propaganda through NPR and Cable Television, but having lost control of the cultural narrative, they’re flopping around incoherently like suffocating fish. They’re likely to become violent as any wounded bestial creature does, but they’re unlikely to retake the coveted position of cultural prominence.

As a

Person Online

stated, C’thulhu may finally have begun to swim to the Right.

What truly terrifies modern progressive filth enough to burn random people’s cars and threaten innocent civilians is the fact that their loss of the narrative is not temporary. The Marxist arc of history has reached its limit and been denied. It turns out that the world will not become more egalitarian and equitable and higher-standard-of-living forever. It turns out that resources are finite. It turns out the patience of a culture for perverts and pedophiles is finite as well.

As a cultural power, the Left is forced to fight in a way they’ve not fought since the days of John Locke: a defensive withdrawal action. An attempt to secure their gains of the last century before they’re swept away by a new masculine Right that wished, back in 2014, to just be left alone.

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The rise of the New Right is an unpredictable cultural force. It’s unpredictable because it is not built on the preconceptions of progressivism. It does not presume that equity (or even egalitarianism) is an inherently good thing (though many prominent commentators argue such for now). The New Right does not contend that hierarchy is inherently oppressive or evil. The New Right currently spans from American Liberal Traditionalists right back to Monarchists, National Socialists, Imperialists, Theocrats, and every grouping in between.

I fall solidly under “Monarchist” for the time being.

What’s undeniable about the New Right is that it is a vital cultural force. Rather than co-opting, the New Right is creating. Places like substack, AI development, Art. The New Right is, without the crushing weight of cultural baggage, and using that liberty to build novel ideas. The vacuum left by the progressive movement will see created something entirely new in the next generation or two.

That dynamism, especially in conjunction with new tools like AI, is critical to understanding what the coming decade may look like: A competition between leftwing liches in their legacy strongholds and the creation of new ideas and culture by a young and vital Right. How vicious that competition gets depends primarily on the out-of-touch left-wing lunatic leaders and their mentally stunted thralls.

A time of rapid change is here, and we’ve been waiting for it. Preconceptions as basic as women’s suffrage or the preeminence of the Dollar as the primary of exchange within the US are no longer useful [many states are now acknowledging gold and silver as legal tender]. With that in mind, the directional cultural changes we’re undergoing may induce shifts far faster than many realize.

Demographics are Shifting

Demographic shifts within the United States and globally are dramatically reshaping local populations in a relatively short period. The United States has gained a substantial Latino and Castizo population. Those populations have also begun to swing to the Right as the machismo characteristic of Latin American culture is decidedly unwelcome on the political Left. While progressives advocate for illegal migrants and criminals, many of the Latinos in the United States immigrated to escape those criminals in the first place. (Also, LatinX sounds stupid.)

The demographic transition in the United States is likely to generate the conditions for ethnogenisis. The progressive left will happily lump in the Castizos with “evil white men” while advocating in the interests of drug dealers and rapists. Just as the Irish, the Germans, and later the Italians eventually simply became “Americans,” the hostility of the Democratic party and the progressives in particular will cause many of the Latino population to see themselves as American Conservatives first and as Latino second.

The democratic party and Progressives appeal to the more authoritarian sensibilities of Latin American culture, but a significant percentage of the (legal) Latino population exited Latin American culture specifically to escape authoritarian and corrupt governance. Should birthright citizenship be rescinded, a wedge will be driven into the Latino culture in the US, separating the American Citizens from the Foreign Migrants. The former will view themselves as Americans, while the latter will become a separate demographic block. Initially, it’ll take the form of a legal separation, but quickly morph into a cultural and even linguistic separation as well.

Latin Castizos will be the first “non-European” group integrated into the “American” identity. East asians will exist there as well but will be too small in number to affect demographics. This will occur simultaneously with the United States becoming politically and culturally separated from an increasingly incoherent and authoritarian Europe.

The United States is about to undergo a cultural genesis followed by a rigorous ethnogenisis. In several generations, “Americans” will be regarded as an ethnic group separate from Anglo-Saxons. “WASPS” will cease to hold a dominant cultural narrative. The ethnogenisis occurring in the United States and cultural/economic separation from Europe helps to build a philosophical weathervain:

• There is no future where the United States or American People become more closely tied to our dysfunctional European or Anglo cousins. The cultural-ethnic restructuring in the United States will dramatically alter the way the US deals with Europe.

Rather than brothers in arms, Europeans will be seen as dysfunctional developing nations under authoritarian Islamic or Managerialist rule. This will place further strain on relations between the US and Canada while normalizing relations between the US and Mexico. Canada will become a troublesome outgrowth of the British failed states… Few citizens realize how separate and hostile the two cultures are likely to become over only a couple of decades.

Nationalist Infighting as Necessary

The next 3 to 6 years will see tremendous turbulence in the New Right as the cultural identity of the New Right becomes solidified. Vivek Ramaswamy was one of the first casualties when he called upon US leaders to bring in millions of indians with H1B visas. In response, he was ejected from the Trump team and replaced.

The New Right is (preliminarily) building an identity around Christianity, National Exceptionalism, and Industrialism. The exact details are still highly in flux. For many years, it was unknown what type of identity the New Right would hold, though there were plenty of theories as early as 2013. Now that the Dissident Right has transitioned into the New Right, there a few statements that we can make.

• The New American Right is going to be unashamedly Christian in identity. Not “turn the other cheek” Christian… Aggressive Crusader Christian. It is by the divine light of God that the progressive demons are to be smote, not merely with an agnostic’s admonishment.

On a personal level, I am deeply enjoying the prominence of the Crusader/ Jerusalem Cross as New Right iconography. It’s a very aggressive and well known Christian symbol.

• The New American Right believes in American Cultural Exceptionalism. The idea is that the United States is just better than other countries. Given the way that other developed nations have been behaving, it’s a relatively easy conclusion to make. For most fly-over Americans, this breaks down to “my nation is the best, and my state is the best state in that nation.” A sort of Holy-Roman-Empire concept of divine right and an American Frontier conception of Manifest Destiny.

• The New Right believes that it is the duty of the government to be industrially productive once again. The United States has for too long provided favored trade to foreign nations, enemy nations even, for the sake of the global economic order. The New Right despises the global economic order and free trade. Not just that it is good to be economically productive at home, but being the best, the most precise, the cleanest, the fastest is our divine providence.

The political reformation in the United States very much resembles a classical coup. A hostile authority has seized control despite an uncooperative regime. The cultural reformation occurring (it’s okay to make fun of left-wing nutjobs again) also resembles a coup. The New Right has seized cultural autonomy despite the best efforts of the previous regime and its totalitarian thought leaders.

While the New Right is forming its new cultural block, it’s also necessary to understand some of the second and third-order effects of hostile seizure. One of the most important elements is that seizing power requires keys: Important individuals and institutions either created or subverted. The keys to power are what permit a specific cultural block or political leader to maintain power in the face of various forms of opposition. Most importantly:

“The keys needed to take power are not the same keys needed to keep it.”

The New Right and the Republican Party are going to go through a process of political purging. Its former allies may find themselves on the outside if they aren’t careful. This is in both a political and a cultural sense. The neo-nazi pagans are not going to be a major cultural force for example, despite those groups having a substantial early presence in the Dissident Right back in 2014.

Similarly, the Republican party is undergoing its political shake-down. Vivek Ramaswamy was an early casualty, but more will follow. Musk, Trump, and Vance have effectively formed a Triumvirate with which to rule. The enemies created by the triumvirate are going to have significant political power of their own and may spawn future dissidents once ejected.

After a normal revolution, the New Right would perform a sweeping purge of its ranks after a successful coup, but the process has been slowed by the progressive left. By clinging on to power like petulant children and violently attacking innocent bystanders, the progressive left has generated cohesion in the New Right. The New Right does not need to engage in internal division as long as the progressive left continues fighting (even if losing) on the cultural and political battlefield.

Serious cracks in the New Order of American politics won’t emerge until the democratic party and the nutcase zealots of the progressive left give surrender. I anticipate that a serious Republican restructure will not be needed until after the 2026 or even 2028 elections.

Eventually, the internal divisions will divide the New Right. Powerful elites who do not fit well into the New Right will form their a party by either seizing control of the dying Democratic Party or forging a new political party as the Democratic Party becomes a cadaverous husk. The New Right dissidents may well align themselves with the Libertarian Party in the long run.

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The Necessity of a 12-Year Trump/Vance Regime

For Donald Trump and JD Vance to be wholly successful, they will need to remain in power for at least 12 years. That’s long enough to calcify new institutions, complete the New Right’s cultural project, and forge a lasting legacy. If Trump is in power for only 4 years and then the Democratic Progressives take power again, they’ll immediately attempt to undo all that was accomplished. After 12 years of irrelevance, however, the Democrat Party will have undergone radical reform before they touch the levers of power again at the executive level.

To ensure 12 years of dominance, there are several strategies that the current administration may employ to maintain dominance. They’re already in a powerful position, but it remains tenuous. Trump is old, Vance is still relatively unknown (but a god tier shitposter) and Elon Musk is doing Musk things, we’ll see how long that lasts.

I suspect the best way for the current Regime to retain power while also instituting radical reforms is for Donald Trump to do what he’s currently doing. Immediately at the beginning of year 1 of the presidency, institute the most extreme and radical economic reforms. Play the media so that Donald Trump’s name is the name attached to all the negative side effects. “The Trump War on the Houthis,” the “Trump Tariff War,” the “Trump Economic Crash,” etc.

So far, the media midwits been successfully manipulated into following this game-plan. Donald Trump will continue using this method to attach his name to all the reforms put in place. Once the recoveries begin (anticipated in late 2026 or Spring 2027) and the global markets and political policies begin to restabilize, Trump will do something few expect:

Trump will wait until the “Dark Horse” democratic candidate has been chosen and publicized. Then, in a powerful speech, Donald Trump will talk about how he’s “too old” to be an honest representative for the next generation. He’ll talk about how [insert dark-horse candidate] is too [old/young/extreme/traditional/whatever] to be a good candidate either. Then, Donald Trump will resign.

This won’t be a Nixon style resignation where he’s forced out of office. Donald Trump will wait for a moment when his popularity is at a peak. Donald Trump wants to be thought of as George Washington (who refused to run for a third term despite popularity and an insistent population, setting the “two-terms-only” tradition for American presidents). Donald Trump wants history to remember him the same way we now remember Cincinnatus.

In stepping down from power: Donald Trump will create an undeniable historical legacy. Donald Trump will hamstring the Democratic “dark horse” presidential candidate. Donald Trump will also create a path for an easy victory for JD Vance as most of the negative press will have been attached to Trump’s name.

JD Vance will be extremely well-positioned to prove himself over a year or two, then run for the office in 2028. The Democratic party will not have reformed by 2028, so it’s unlikely they’ll be a serious threat. Vance will likely win and then run for office again (successfully) in 2032. The current administration is likely to remain in power until 2036 if current trends hold. Additionally, Vance comes from a world of traditionalist manufacturing Americana. He will likely stand up to the more extreme drives of the Right in both the authoritarian sense and the anarcho-capitalist sense.

The result will be 12 years under a single administration that coincides with the growth of a friendly, vital, and very angry cultural block. The Democrat party will no longer be relevant unless they reform radically (unlikely in the near future) or completely change their platform. Alternatively, the Democratic Party may be replaced entirely with something new.

AI Tech Will Only Grow in Prominence

The wild card in all this is technological development. AI technology is growing at a breakneck pace. Depending on how fast and how extreme the technological changes are, there may well be blind spots in the trends observed above. The creation of art is one thing, but changes may result from the deep-state using mass-data-AI to create an unofficial social credit score, or megacorporations blacklisting individuals for not participating in their “free and Just economy” hard enough.

Alternatively, AI tech may allow for mass manufacturing-automation… which could be good or bad depending on how it’s implemented. If the Trump/Vance regime has the stones to heavily regulate AI tech, we could see an American golden age as raw resources are drawn into the US and the demographic decline has no impact on productivity. If AI is fully unregulated, it could lead to a disaster, and that’s saying nothing of the truly extreme outlooks presented by groups such as Less Wrong.

A lot of individuals envision AI reaching ‘takeoff velocity’ in the next few years and achieving general artificial intelligence. I suspect that we’re looking at more of an adoption curve regarding capability. What looks like an exponential trend now is merely the center of the curve, after which continued development will slow over time. Every other technology humans have ever created followed a similar adoption curve with “this will change everything” hype generally occurring a year or two before the rate-of-development begins to slow considerably.

Moore’s Law once predicted that individual chips would have as many transistors by 2025 as a modern data center has. There are physical/information limits that slow tech development in ways that early developers rarely see coming.

That AI will, at some point, plateau seems likely. If AI does reach “takeoff” and exits the realm of predictability, then critical examination of future sociology likewise exits the realm of predictability.

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Those are the primary trends that I’m looking at when observing the directional changes to American culture and politics over the mid-term. Additional considerations play a role, but that provides the basis for an examination of where things are likely going. The future political parties of the next American era are going to be quite different from what citizens take for granted right now.

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A Serpentine Path to the Next Era

The HR Karen problem

The cultural transition in the United States will not be swift. It will drag on for years. Karens and bloviating leftists have embedded themselves in midlevel management positions. They will refuse to (or more likely be unable to) retire. Expect a sort of “glass ceiling” in most institutions past with most men cannot advance. Getting hired at all as a white man is likely to be an ordeal as these childless middle-aged cat ladies seek to punish the next generation of productive individuals.

Those individuals and groups will be the longest-lasting fragments of modern progressivism. In creating an economic barrier for some of the most productive and creative people in the nation, large bureaucratic institutions will find themselves unable to hire competent young people due to their own internal barriers. The next generation will be forced into one of two routes:

• The lucky and brave will build their own businesses, lacking many of the bureaucratic/managerial over-head of large institutions, replacing an inefficient design with AI tools.

• The unfortunate or desperate will be forced into the gig economy, taking whatever scraps they can get from the megacorporations that now operate large swaths of the “independent contractors” in the US.

After eventually being forced out of their positions due to either corporate downsizing (often for a lack of qualified personnel) or due to age-related illness, many of these stubborn progressive HR Karens will waft gently into the night, never to be heard from again. The process could easily take a full 20 or 30 years, though. Their only lasting legacy will be as an argument against “women in the workplace” that will be used by generations of men in the future.

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The Next Political Parties: Tech-Bro Libertarian Right and Nationalist New Right

The most interesting socio-political impact of the dying Progressive movement is the cultural vacuum created. In response will form/reform new political parties. Progressivism and Equity (and maybe even Egalitarianism) will have left such a foul taste in the mouths of the next few generations that it’ll be roughly as politically dead as Communism was in 1959. The result will be the total collapse of the Democratic Party. Between a refusal to reform, mental illness among their adherents, the end of Feminism, and a general public distrust of their institutions, the Democratic Party is very likely cooked.

What emerges on the other side of the Trump/Vance administration will look very different. The Democrats, already well known for catering to the billionaire elite class, will transition (or be absorbed by a newly reformed up-and-coming Libertarian party) into a “Tech-Bro Libertarian” party. The goal will be the enrichment of global trade at the expense of national production. The Republican party will become fly-over Christian nationalists who oppose the Tech-Bro libertarians in the interests of the American People.

Vivek Ramiswamy will likely emerge as a prominent figure among the Tech-Bro Libertarians, while the flag-waving Americana Nationalists will see JD Vance as their leader. Hopefully, he’ll prove himself a skilled and competent statesman in the coming decade.

Social issues will be abandoned by the Left. They’ll need to be. Exactly how far back progressive policies are pushed depends on how obnoxious they are over the next 6 to 8 years as their political movement lashes out and dies. (Or is killed if the new DOJ, CIA, and FBI get involved.)

The result could be a simple draw-down back to a 2010 style of egalitarian non-issues except for a few key cultural rejections like puberty-blockers and abortion.

If the progressives are overly obnoxious in their death-throws, it’s likely, gay marriage, abortion rights, many Title IX protections, and immigration will all be thrown out with prejudice. The progressives are in a political death spiral. The more demands they make, the stronger the pushback gets; the stronger the pushback gets, the more extreme and fringe progressive demands become. Civil conflict, while unlikely in-aggrigate, is possible in specific areas like Seattle, Western Oregon, and a few large cities in the central US like Omaha and St. Louis. As it stands, many on the Right would provide a standing ovation to any governor that arrests, deports, or otherwise eliminates the violent progressive lunatics plaguing his state.

The ball is in their court right now. Either way, they’ll lose. The real question is: by how much? Leftists and progressives are not practiced in fighting defensive actions on the political battlefield and seem very likely to suffer a total rout. Their attacks against Latinos and Latino culture won’t help.

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The Executive Branch

A long-term consideration of the United States over the next few years is an Imperial repositioning of the Executive branch of government. Congress will frequently find itself gridlocked (especially as Democrats attempt to halt any positive developments for the American people). As such, the Executive branch of the US government will play a larger and larger role over the next 12 to 20 years.

The centralization of power won’t specifically create an “Emperor,” but it will push the United States in that direction. The upcoming American Right-ist Era will last for 60 to 120 yeas at which time new reformations will be needed. When that occurs, the next American era will likely accept a highly centralized Executive branch as standard practice. At which point, Congress becomes vestigial. Legislators be arrested for treason, or put to the sword, or something equally gaudy for the history books.

That’ll be the formal creation of the “Imperator” type position that the president will one day occupy. That said, it’ll likely be less violent than the Roman version because the American transition to Empire is happening earlier and more slowly. (Trump is a Gracci, and were we to follow the Roman model, the assassination attempt Summer of 2024 would have been successful).

In the mid-term, the United States will undergo a strange sort of post-Soviet re-industrialization if all goes well. The centralization of political power to the Executive branch will provide Vance with sufficient headway to partially re-industrialize the nation. The profits from such will not be evenly distributed. The Rust Belt will be favored, while mining in the Rocky Mountain states will increase significantly. Still, large swaths of the United States (sections of the South and the Breadbasket, and New England) will be left out of the new industrial boom.

The United States will also develop regional blocks based on cultural preferences. The Left Coast, New England, The Great Plains, etc. Those blocks will act in their collective interests. With Congress constantly gridlocked, state-level governors will gain significant power. Rather than a rule by federal law, we will see (and are already seeing) a transition to rule by state law. This trend will accelerate under the Trump/Vance administration. Several states and blocks will likely be ready to fully disconnect from the US Dollar as base currency before significant economic collapse.

The US will be buoyed economically by states ready to swap to local state-level gold-backed or Bitcoin-backed currencies. When that happens, the United States will be less a Federal Union and more a Federated Empire similar to modern-day Russia where governance occurs from the leader through an in-name-only congress. The state leaders and legislatures will work directly with the Federal Executive branch to institute legislation rather than through Congressional approval.

A New American Empire

In the long run, the United States is on the path to Empire by a long and circuitous route. The fact that global economic metrics, national economic metrics, national policies, and nationalist politics are all moving in that direction supports the thesis. While 10% or 20% shifts in the stock market make for great headlines, they don’t provide a person with a good view of history.

Tech is its own beast, and I don’t want to dive into it too deeply as AI still has everyone reeling and screaming about an upcoming apocalypse or an upcoming golden age. Realistically, it’ll probably be a bit of both, but AI will be constrained by resource-rate-limits just like the rest of us. Expect a lot of new data centers, but expect a lot of the hype to be overblown in a few years. That’s my expectation, anyway.

In terms of political fallout, observing the transition to Empire, it’s important to note the rejection of the Marxist “arc of history.” The entire progressive materialist model of reality is conceptually structured around that core tenet of Marxism. As the arc of history has been rejected, it’s causing dangerous levels of cognitive dissonance. The basic idea is that a “materialist heaven-on-earth is inevitable.” Without that, the entire worldview of modern liberalism/progressivism disintegrates. It’s as if a hardcore atheist was shown convincing and obvious proof that God existed; it simply cannot square within the presupposed worldview. Many leftists will behave like cultists whose prophesized apocalypse didn’t arrive: they’ll set a new date and double down even harder. A few will reform.

The rejection of the faith of progressivism will result in the development of new philosophical ideas. The regrowth of Christianity means that those ideas are likely to be compatible with Christianity… at least partially in most cases.

The continued centralization of power in the United States Executive Branch of government is likely to be contested only at the state level rather than the federal level, meaning that individual state legislatures will become only more important and obtuse over time.

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While it can be fun to rage over the latest stock market trends or international policies, they should be framed in the context of a full decade of Trump/Vance leadership: distancing from Europe, closer ties to the US protectorates in the Far East, competition with China, Russia, India, and the EU. The long-term disconnection of various national-scale economies as the global economic system de-complexifies.

Do not panic-sell your American stonks. Try to take a longer view of history, and it’ll be a lot easier to see how the secondary and third-order effects of current-day policies are going to change the world in the next year and the next 10 years.

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