The Hegelian dialectic : The ability to view issues from multiple perspectives and to arrive at the most economical and reasonable reconciliation of seemingly contradictory information and postures.
This is a very Post Millennial take on the trends. I'm not a Post Millennialist but I hope you're right in your predictions. I would welcome a return to being a religious and moral people, suitable for self government.
I don't follow Post Millennial very closely. If my take mirrors his, it's likely that we're picking up on similar long-term cultural trends. Religious resurgence should improve self-governance over time, but it'll be a while. The managerial state won't want to give up its inherent power.
Once more you have shown not only your intellect but your balls - many have brains, but few have the courage to formulate them into predictions. Many of these are incredibly bold - especially Trump stepping aside - the logic is smooth and clear. Love it.
That's been my bet for several weeks now. Vance will have to make a good showing as diplomat over the next year, but if he does relatively well then I suspect that to cement a legacy and ensure that it'll be carried Trump will resign. His desire to be president has always had a significant aspect of ego, and exiting in such a way would serve that ego.
The D party is dead. Remains to be seen how much damage they'll do on the way out: they own the bureaucracy and academia. Is their slide into irrelevance narcissism, or simply infertility, which forces them to recruit from the other side's disaffected, subpar, and mentally/spiritually ill youth?
There is already a wedge between legal and illegal Latinos in the US. And the untrammeled migration has been killing the home countries back in centroamerica. It's so much worse than just brain drain: it's generations of feral kids whose working-age parents have been shoved into the go-work-in-America-and-send-money-home role. This is where the gang problem comes from.
Agreed we're definitely headed toward a more centralized despotic governance, like it or not. Basically friendly oligarchy posing as representative democracy seems to have spent itself and now the scavengers are gorging on its corpse, trying to stow away as much wealth as they can grab while the grabbing is good. No idea what they think it will buy them, when they have so indecently squandered public goodwill. It's not like they are planning to clean their own bunkers.
The problem with AI takeoff is, of course, that it eats a terrific amount of electricity. It'll be fascinating (and possibly terrifying) to see how the downward fossil resource extraction curve, and the upward fossil resource demand, interact with each other. God willing, they'll cancel each other out, and the future will be a lot more local, civilized, and adapted to a less resource-intensive tier of technological entanglement.
Given resource depletion, a lot of the superstructure of office fauna is going to have to collapse. All the crazy info-manipulating type jobs depend on a practically endless well of fossil energy. We will need a lot more farmers. I think in the long run, this will be good for men: one of the most terrible contributions of the industrial revolution was turning us from a country of men who sold things that they grew and made, to men who sold their time and labor. Tide may be about to turn on that one. Open question how many generations that'll take, since a college education so dreadfully de-equips men for this sort of life: that of building, making, growing, and fixing things, and running their own business affairs: each household a hub of production.
I don't share your optimism about Vance. The techbros at least, seem to think he's their man. Here's hoping he isn't.
We'll find out soon enough which side Vance lands on. I suspect his loyalty is to his roots, but I may be wrong. His voice is really going to be the arbiter of which way the 21st century falls here in the next few years.... or AI takeover happens.
I think the AI stuff has been slow-rolled to the public. Still wondering if the whole COVID thing was so weird because it was a large scale test run of the tech.
This is a kick-in-the-pants to get working on a business idea I have had for a long time. Being a wagie may pay the bills, but it makes my stability depend on someone else's decisions.
"There is no future where the United States or American People become more closely tied to our dysfunctional European or Anglo cousins."
An American calling Europe dysfunctional is the most ironic thing I've read in a while. If the American empire recedes then Europe has a chance to revitalise and throw out all the nonsense that was forced onto it by American hegemon.
That aside I think your predictions are pure cope. Replacing large portions of your European diaspora with Latinos/other races isn't going to create some high flying super nation. You're going to end up like Brazil. I predict that the USA (an already fragmented country) will likely break up into smaller nations based on ethnicity and religion in the coming centuries.
Sorry to burst your misinformed bubble but there aren't going to be any caliphates in Europe. Birth rates, and demographic trends aren't at that level where an Islamic future of Europe is even remotely likely. America's future as a Brazil-like nation is going to be dark.
If that's the state of France, I can only Imagine what a dire stare that the USA is in.
Still, the Muslims once conquered 96% of Spain and they were driven out. If Europeans can free themselves from the American yoke then I reckon they'll do it again.
This is an interesting list of prophecies. The idea that Trump will resign to cement his legacy is bold, but far-fetched. I don't think Trump cares what happens after he's dead.
I also doubt the demographic momentum of the Mexican bloc foretells 120 years of glory for Alt Right America, regardless of how they're voting now. More Mexicans makes America more like Mexico, not the Holy Roman Empire.
Your post starts off strong, but slowly unravels into Christian ideology toward the end... Can I assume you're Christian?
I think that you're right about the tail end. Wasn't sure how to wrap up the analytics portion of the post... I wanted to get the primary meat-and-potatoes out before people lost their shit too much over market instability.
I'm acknowledging where the voting blocks seem to be going. The Latino population will create a wave of hispanic-catholicism and the rejection of leftism seems to be taking on a powerfully Christian dimension. Mostly in that Churches are the only functioning community-organization units left... and they're ballooning in membership among the younger generation. I'm open to alternative viewpoints if you propose that the nation is going elsewhere.
I agree that's what's happening short-term, but long-term I consider it inevitable that America turns into something (even more) closely resembling Brazil. Either America recapitulates Uruguayan history, or disappears. Voting red and warming pews only matters as long as there are enough Whites to keep the institutions afloat. America and Christianity are both committing suicide by Mexicans.
This is what I speculate anyway. I'm not confident enough to call this a prediction, but only because WWIII might happen before then and complicate things. Catholicism could be instantly reduced to the status of a Protestant sect, for example, depending on whatever happens to Rome in such an event.
What role does Trump's family play here? It has always been my feeling that he does want to create some sort of dynasty. Will we wee a comeback of Trump post-Vance? Could Barron be a pivotal figure in the transition to a new American empire, and perhaps also the person to start the next phase of cultural transformation by adopting more and more trappings of a monarch?
It really depends on how Trump's family plays their cards after Trump effectively retires sometime in the next 12 years. It would be cool if Barron became our Octavian, but I haven't got a good read on what their intent is at the macro level. His family has been pretty good about not-getting-in-over-their-heads
I get where you're coming from, but I don't think that's in the cards. The US is already too mixed. Could work in Canada if it wasn't in the process of becoming Cold-India.
If America is to enjoy a manufacturing revival in the medium and high value range, then one aspect which is critical is expanding non-fossil mineral extraction. A quick dive on Grok showed that if America relaxed its environmental regulations to around the level of Australia, and invested $50-$100 billion over 10-15 years, it could add $200 billion to GDP per year, double extraction employment, create an additional 500k to 1 million jobs in adjacent secondary and tertiary sectors, and grow average American incomes by $250 to $500 per year in real terms.
But that's not all. The UBS teardown of the BYD Seal showed that vertical integration is one of several things giving BYD an unbeatable advantage. Mineral extraction is vital because most of the profits generated by this activity get counted under manufacturing and technology.
In related news for technology investors CATL recently developed a new sodium battery. The sodium battery allows for faster charging, and is better than BYD in other ways, including a longer battery lifespan. Sodium batteries are also cold weather proof, operating effectively down to around -40°C. Three days ago, it was reported that CATL engaged in a buyback. The market read this as an attempt to stabilise the share price, but it could be something else. According to some sources, CATL has been approved for a Hong Kong listing.
In January 20025 the DOD listed CATL as a 'Chinese Military Company', potentially deterring American investors. However, CATL is Tesla's largest battery supplier. Given everything Elon Musk has been through, with deluded blue hairs setting fire to Tesla vehicles, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the increased reporting requirements of a Hong Kong listing allayed the DODs security fears. There is also the possibility of CATL factories in Mexico or the US. CATL has a history of trying to locate plants close to the supply destination. It's part of a broader strategy to lower trade barriers, and avoid tariff impacts.
I am not a qualified financial advisor and it may be the case that CATL is only any good as a longer term investment, but there is a long history of individual technology companies being undervalued as a result of broader market shifts dating back all the way to the dot-com bubble. As an investment, this may well be worth a punt.
You're not wrong, its' a hard road back to a manufacturing economy in the United States. With that said, there's complexities of it that I'm not skilled enough to focus on. I do think that we're going to go through a major economic restructuring one way or another.
"Latin Castizos will be the first “non-European” group integrated into the “American” identity. East asians will exist there as well but will be too small in number to affect demographics. This will occur simultaneously with the United States becoming politically and culturally separated from an increasingly incoherent and authoritarian Europe."
Let me be as clear as the founding fathers in the preamble to the Constitution:
America is for *the American Posterity* and nobody else. If your ancestors were not part of the Revolution, you are not American -- *and none of America is for you.* Or Mexicans. Or Chinese.
The American Revolution was not fought to secure rights for Guatemalans or Vietnamese.
Nor is America some "land of opportunity!" or "melting pot" for the rest of the world to come exploit, come-one-come-all get your piece of the pie. America is not some fucking whore for anyone who can pay their way here to take advantaged of. No other nation is viewed that way, and it is a treasonous psy-op that such a view has been propagated of America.
I'm not arguing with the founding fathers... I'm projecting trends into the future. You can like them or dislike them, or find them morally reprehensible. This is my best guess for how things are going in the United States.
When forming predictions, you would do well to consider actual historical events. Consider that just a few years ago, the Dominican Republic deported 10% of its population in less than a year. 10% of its population was Haitians and they got rid of them in a matter of months:
Obviously the US could *very easily* do better than that. Pretending like it can't and that tribal warfare between neighboring Muslim, Mexican, and American Christian enclaves is the likely future not only isn't likely or tied to any historical trends, it's more or less political science fiction and a form of fallout sensationalism.
I doubt it, it'll be a lot of new things all clumped together into a kludgy mess... some bits will be Technate, especially the oversocialized over-urbanized populations. The demographic trend will be for ruralization I suspect as rural families will have an above-replacement birth rate. Those areas will go more traditional and Feudal. They're already moving that ways as the state organs needed to suppress white-collar corruption have been damaged beyond repair (or at least beyond repair in the next decade or two).
The Hegelian dialectic : The ability to view issues from multiple perspectives and to arrive at the most economical and reasonable reconciliation of seemingly contradictory information and postures.
This is a very Post Millennial take on the trends. I'm not a Post Millennialist but I hope you're right in your predictions. I would welcome a return to being a religious and moral people, suitable for self government.
I don't follow Post Millennial very closely. If my take mirrors his, it's likely that we're picking up on similar long-term cultural trends. Religious resurgence should improve self-governance over time, but it'll be a while. The managerial state won't want to give up its inherent power.
Agree with your take on that, if in fact the trends are sustained. Entropy being what it is...
Entropy does seem to be accelerating the process.
Once more you have shown not only your intellect but your balls - many have brains, but few have the courage to formulate them into predictions. Many of these are incredibly bold - especially Trump stepping aside - the logic is smooth and clear. Love it.
That's been my bet for several weeks now. Vance will have to make a good showing as diplomat over the next year, but if he does relatively well then I suspect that to cement a legacy and ensure that it'll be carried Trump will resign. His desire to be president has always had a significant aspect of ego, and exiting in such a way would serve that ego.
You are exactly right - it would be genius. And one thing that would help ruin the left extending onto the Vance years.
The D party is dead. Remains to be seen how much damage they'll do on the way out: they own the bureaucracy and academia. Is their slide into irrelevance narcissism, or simply infertility, which forces them to recruit from the other side's disaffected, subpar, and mentally/spiritually ill youth?
There is already a wedge between legal and illegal Latinos in the US. And the untrammeled migration has been killing the home countries back in centroamerica. It's so much worse than just brain drain: it's generations of feral kids whose working-age parents have been shoved into the go-work-in-America-and-send-money-home role. This is where the gang problem comes from.
Agreed we're definitely headed toward a more centralized despotic governance, like it or not. Basically friendly oligarchy posing as representative democracy seems to have spent itself and now the scavengers are gorging on its corpse, trying to stow away as much wealth as they can grab while the grabbing is good. No idea what they think it will buy them, when they have so indecently squandered public goodwill. It's not like they are planning to clean their own bunkers.
The problem with AI takeoff is, of course, that it eats a terrific amount of electricity. It'll be fascinating (and possibly terrifying) to see how the downward fossil resource extraction curve, and the upward fossil resource demand, interact with each other. God willing, they'll cancel each other out, and the future will be a lot more local, civilized, and adapted to a less resource-intensive tier of technological entanglement.
Given resource depletion, a lot of the superstructure of office fauna is going to have to collapse. All the crazy info-manipulating type jobs depend on a practically endless well of fossil energy. We will need a lot more farmers. I think in the long run, this will be good for men: one of the most terrible contributions of the industrial revolution was turning us from a country of men who sold things that they grew and made, to men who sold their time and labor. Tide may be about to turn on that one. Open question how many generations that'll take, since a college education so dreadfully de-equips men for this sort of life: that of building, making, growing, and fixing things, and running their own business affairs: each household a hub of production.
I don't share your optimism about Vance. The techbros at least, seem to think he's their man. Here's hoping he isn't.
Let's all pray for a peaceful transition.
We'll find out soon enough which side Vance lands on. I suspect his loyalty is to his roots, but I may be wrong. His voice is really going to be the arbiter of which way the 21st century falls here in the next few years.... or AI takeover happens.
Wild times.
I think the AI stuff has been slow-rolled to the public. Still wondering if the whole COVID thing was so weird because it was a large scale test run of the tech.
That's an interesting point.
This is a kick-in-the-pants to get working on a business idea I have had for a long time. Being a wagie may pay the bills, but it makes my stability depend on someone else's decisions.
Good. I've got a few ideas for smol business... need to get on that.
"There is no future where the United States or American People become more closely tied to our dysfunctional European or Anglo cousins."
An American calling Europe dysfunctional is the most ironic thing I've read in a while. If the American empire recedes then Europe has a chance to revitalise and throw out all the nonsense that was forced onto it by American hegemon.
That aside I think your predictions are pure cope. Replacing large portions of your European diaspora with Latinos/other races isn't going to create some high flying super nation. You're going to end up like Brazil. I predict that the USA (an already fragmented country) will likely break up into smaller nations based on ethnicity and religion in the coming centuries.
Well, we will see how it goes. The Brazillian America will still probably be more functional than the various caliphates in Western Europe.
Sorry to burst your misinformed bubble but there aren't going to be any caliphates in Europe. Birth rates, and demographic trends aren't at that level where an Islamic future of Europe is even remotely likely. America's future as a Brazil-like nation is going to be dark.
I'm open to whatever evidence you're interested in presenting to indicate that I am incorrect...
You're the one making the big assertions without evidence. Don't blame me if I refute them without evidence.
Check the demographic data of Europe (85-90% European) vs America (60% European). My money is on Europe having a brighter future.
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6468640#figure2_radio1
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/nearly-1-3-of-young-children-in-france-are-of-non-european-origin-data-reveals/
I wish ya'll the best of luck, but it's pretty ogre.
If that's the state of France, I can only Imagine what a dire stare that the USA is in.
Still, the Muslims once conquered 96% of Spain and they were driven out. If Europeans can free themselves from the American yoke then I reckon they'll do it again.
This is absolutely _brilliant_!
We'll see, I'll revisit the article in a few years and we'll be able to see what I screwed up and what I got right.
This is an interesting list of prophecies. The idea that Trump will resign to cement his legacy is bold, but far-fetched. I don't think Trump cares what happens after he's dead.
I also doubt the demographic momentum of the Mexican bloc foretells 120 years of glory for Alt Right America, regardless of how they're voting now. More Mexicans makes America more like Mexico, not the Holy Roman Empire.
Your post starts off strong, but slowly unravels into Christian ideology toward the end... Can I assume you're Christian?
I think that you're right about the tail end. Wasn't sure how to wrap up the analytics portion of the post... I wanted to get the primary meat-and-potatoes out before people lost their shit too much over market instability.
I'm acknowledging where the voting blocks seem to be going. The Latino population will create a wave of hispanic-catholicism and the rejection of leftism seems to be taking on a powerfully Christian dimension. Mostly in that Churches are the only functioning community-organization units left... and they're ballooning in membership among the younger generation. I'm open to alternative viewpoints if you propose that the nation is going elsewhere.
I agree that's what's happening short-term, but long-term I consider it inevitable that America turns into something (even more) closely resembling Brazil. Either America recapitulates Uruguayan history, or disappears. Voting red and warming pews only matters as long as there are enough Whites to keep the institutions afloat. America and Christianity are both committing suicide by Mexicans.
This is what I speculate anyway. I'm not confident enough to call this a prediction, but only because WWIII might happen before then and complicate things. Catholicism could be instantly reduced to the status of a Protestant sect, for example, depending on whatever happens to Rome in such an event.
No. China has a huge domestic savings pool. They can literally buy their own products.
You're not very familiar with their culture or economic system, I take it.
China is laissez faire than the USA.
What role does Trump's family play here? It has always been my feeling that he does want to create some sort of dynasty. Will we wee a comeback of Trump post-Vance? Could Barron be a pivotal figure in the transition to a new American empire, and perhaps also the person to start the next phase of cultural transformation by adopting more and more trappings of a monarch?
It really depends on how Trump's family plays their cards after Trump effectively retires sometime in the next 12 years. It would be cool if Barron became our Octavian, but I haven't got a good read on what their intent is at the macro level. His family has been pretty good about not-getting-in-over-their-heads
Castizos need to fuck off and make their own countries better, if it their lot to do so.
Your civnattery is quite disappointing.
I get where you're coming from, but I don't think that's in the cards. The US is already too mixed. Could work in Canada if it wasn't in the process of becoming Cold-India.
If America is to enjoy a manufacturing revival in the medium and high value range, then one aspect which is critical is expanding non-fossil mineral extraction. A quick dive on Grok showed that if America relaxed its environmental regulations to around the level of Australia, and invested $50-$100 billion over 10-15 years, it could add $200 billion to GDP per year, double extraction employment, create an additional 500k to 1 million jobs in adjacent secondary and tertiary sectors, and grow average American incomes by $250 to $500 per year in real terms.
But that's not all. The UBS teardown of the BYD Seal showed that vertical integration is one of several things giving BYD an unbeatable advantage. Mineral extraction is vital because most of the profits generated by this activity get counted under manufacturing and technology.
In related news for technology investors CATL recently developed a new sodium battery. The sodium battery allows for faster charging, and is better than BYD in other ways, including a longer battery lifespan. Sodium batteries are also cold weather proof, operating effectively down to around -40°C. Three days ago, it was reported that CATL engaged in a buyback. The market read this as an attempt to stabilise the share price, but it could be something else. According to some sources, CATL has been approved for a Hong Kong listing.
In January 20025 the DOD listed CATL as a 'Chinese Military Company', potentially deterring American investors. However, CATL is Tesla's largest battery supplier. Given everything Elon Musk has been through, with deluded blue hairs setting fire to Tesla vehicles, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the increased reporting requirements of a Hong Kong listing allayed the DODs security fears. There is also the possibility of CATL factories in Mexico or the US. CATL has a history of trying to locate plants close to the supply destination. It's part of a broader strategy to lower trade barriers, and avoid tariff impacts.
I am not a qualified financial advisor and it may be the case that CATL is only any good as a longer term investment, but there is a long history of individual technology companies being undervalued as a result of broader market shifts dating back all the way to the dot-com bubble. As an investment, this may well be worth a punt.
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-data/2023/byd-teardown.html
You're not wrong, its' a hard road back to a manufacturing economy in the United States. With that said, there's complexities of it that I'm not skilled enough to focus on. I do think that we're going to go through a major economic restructuring one way or another.
"Latin Castizos will be the first “non-European” group integrated into the “American” identity. East asians will exist there as well but will be too small in number to affect demographics. This will occur simultaneously with the United States becoming politically and culturally separated from an increasingly incoherent and authoritarian Europe."
Let me be as clear as the founding fathers in the preamble to the Constitution:
America is for *the American Posterity* and nobody else. If your ancestors were not part of the Revolution, you are not American -- *and none of America is for you.* Or Mexicans. Or Chinese.
The American Revolution was not fought to secure rights for Guatemalans or Vietnamese.
Nor is America some "land of opportunity!" or "melting pot" for the rest of the world to come exploit, come-one-come-all get your piece of the pie. America is not some fucking whore for anyone who can pay their way here to take advantaged of. No other nation is viewed that way, and it is a treasonous psy-op that such a view has been propagated of America.
I'm not arguing with the founding fathers... I'm projecting trends into the future. You can like them or dislike them, or find them morally reprehensible. This is my best guess for how things are going in the United States.
When forming predictions, you would do well to consider actual historical events. Consider that just a few years ago, the Dominican Republic deported 10% of its population in less than a year. 10% of its population was Haitians and they got rid of them in a matter of months:
https://voxday.net/2024/07/11/the-doability-of-mass-deportation/
Obviously the US could *very easily* do better than that. Pretending like it can't and that tribal warfare between neighboring Muslim, Mexican, and American Christian enclaves is the likely future not only isn't likely or tied to any historical trends, it's more or less political science fiction and a form of fallout sensationalism.
The newest Reich? https://veejaytsunamix.substack.com/p/welcome-to-the-technate
I doubt it, it'll be a lot of new things all clumped together into a kludgy mess... some bits will be Technate, especially the oversocialized over-urbanized populations. The demographic trend will be for ruralization I suspect as rural families will have an above-replacement birth rate. Those areas will go more traditional and Feudal. They're already moving that ways as the state organs needed to suppress white-collar corruption have been damaged beyond repair (or at least beyond repair in the next decade or two).
I’m thinking scattered sovereignships with generic space also reffered as badlands in between them. #theendoftheworldiscancelled